Pilot — explore Liepāja's possible futures

Try a new way to explore the published scenarios through 2035. These are scenarios, not forecasts.

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Latvia 2126 · Liepāja · scenarios

What if slightly more people moved to Liepāja than moved away?

This is a sensitivity scenario, not a forecast.

In this scenario slightly more people move in than move away each year, yet the population still falls each year, more slowly than in the reference calculation.

62,545Population on 1 January 2035

+2,000 compared with the reference calculation (60,545)

Net migration in this scenario: +15 persons a year · reference calculation: −235

PopulationPopulation, 1 January 2026–2035. Reference calculation (dashed): 66,746 in 2026, 60,545 in 2035. Scenario (solid, with points): 66,746 in 2026, 62,545 in 2035. Difference in 2035: +2,000.57,50060,00062,50065,00067,50020262029203220352026: 66,746Scenario62,545Reference60,545

This scenario changes net migration only. It is not a forecast or a migration target.

Dashed line: reference calculation. Solid line with points: scenario. The vertical axis does not start at zero; every scenario of this measure uses the same range.

Read the annual values — Population
Population
Year (1 January)Reference calculationScenarioDifference
202666,74666,7460
202766,07166,0710
202865,39665,646+250
202964,71665,216+500
203064,02964,779+750
203163,33464,334+1,000
203262,64163,891+1,250
203361,94663,446+1,500
203461,24762,997+1,750
203560,54562,545+2,000
Why?
  • This scenario changes net migration only, from 2027.
  • Births, deaths and the other demographic assumptions stay on the authorized reference path.
  • So slightly positive net migration does not by itself decide whether the total population rises or falls.
  • It is a sensitivity scenario, not a forecast or a migration target.

Modelled today: to 1 January 2035.

Explore your own scenario ↓

Explore your own scenario

What if Liepāja changes course?

Change two assumptions from 2027 and compare the model-calculated states through 1 January 2035 with the reference calculation. No probability is assigned to scenarios.

Loading verified scenario data…

Change two assumptions

2026 reference values are fixed. Changes apply to 2027–2034 flows; the first potentially changed state is 1 January 2028. The final state is 1 January 2035.

0 persons/year

−250Reference position: 0+325

This assumption changes total net migration, not the number of immigrants. It changes total population. In this scenario, the model does not recalculate migrant age composition, birth and death counts, or the age-group distribution. Alternative age-group values are unavailable.

Implied annual total net migration: −235 persons/year
Reference annual net migration: −235 persons/year

0 dwellings/year

−9Reference position: 0+15

This assumption changes new dwelling additions relative to the reference calculation. A negative change means fewer additions, not demolition. More dwellings do not themselves increase population or migration in this model.

Results on 1 January 2035

Reference — both series coincide

Population

60,545

Reference configuration: 60,545

Difference: 0

Households

30,926

Reference configuration: 30,926

Difference: 0

Dwelling stock

42,108

Reference configuration: 42,108

Difference: 0

Occupied dwellings

30,769

Reference configuration: 30,769

Difference: 0

Unoccupied dwellings

11,339

Reference configuration: 11,339

Difference: 0

Dwellings not classified as occupied under the model's aggregate reconciliation. The category can include, for example, second or seasonal homes, units not usable in the market, and other units not classified as occupied under the statistical reconciliation. “Unoccupied dwellings” is not a measure of market vacancy, housing currently available, habitable housing, affordable housing, housing offered for sale or housing offered for rent. This count also does not establish surplus housing.

PopulationPopulation, 1 January 2026–2035. Scenario and reference calculation coincide: 66,746 in 2026, 60,545 in 2035.57,50060,00062,50065,00067,50020262029203220352026: 66,746Scenario =reference60,545

Dashed line: reference calculation. Solid line with points: scenario. The vertical axis does not start at zero; every scenario of this measure uses the same range.

Read the annual values — Population
Population
Year (1 January)Reference calculationScenarioDifference
202666,74666,7460
202766,07166,0710
202865,39665,3960
202964,71664,7160
203064,02964,0290
203163,33463,3340
203262,64162,6410
203361,94661,9460
203461,24761,2470
203560,54560,5450

Questions this model can’t answer yet

What if Liepāja gained many more well-paid jobs?
Not calculated yet — this would require evidence linking employment, wages, skills, commuting and migration.
What if more young families chose to stay?
Not calculated yet — this would require age-specific migration, household/family and fertility modelling.
What if people lived longer, healthier lives?
Not calculated yet — this would require mortality, longevity and health evidence.
Would more suitable homes help attract or keep residents?
Not calculated yet — the current model does not contain housing-to-migration feedback.
Could many unoccupied dwellings coexist with a housing shortage?
Not calculated yet — the current unoccupied-dwelling result is not market vacancy and does not establish availability, habitability or affordability.

About these scenarios

What stays fixed

The reference calculation is the published baseline, not a claim about the most likely future.

  • Reference surviving-birth counts remain fixed.
  • Reference death counts remain fixed.
  • Household-formation assumptions and the household-size path remain fixed.
  • The reference household-to-occupied-dwelling relationship remains fixed.
  • The reference removals assumption remains fixed. Pure reference assumption, not an observed zero: no series of dwelling removals has been established.
  • Restoration accounting remains separate and does not increase dwelling stock.
  • Migrant age composition is not modelled; alternative cohorts are not calculated.

The calculation does not recommend migration or construction targets.

Important limitations

  • Aggregate migration sensitivity is not a cohort-component demographic model.
  • Birth and death responses to additional residents are not modelled.
  • Household and occupancy relationships retain the reference model’s aggregate proxies.
  • Commissioned new dwellings are not comprehensive net stock change; removal and conversion evidence remains incomplete.
  • There is no endogenous housing-to-migration feedback. The calculation stops at the beginning of 2035.
  • Method changes and exceptional displacement limit strict historical comparability.

What “unoccupied dwellings” means

Dwellings not classified as occupied under the model's aggregate reconciliation. The category can include, for example, second or seasonal homes, units not usable in the market, and other units not classified as occupied under the statistical reconciliation. “Unoccupied dwellings” is not a measure of market vacancy, housing currently available, habitable housing, affordable housing, housing offered for sale or housing offered for rent. This count also does not establish surplus housing.

Historical context

Historical observations provide context, not a prediction.

Population at 1 January · 2015–2026Population at 1 JanuaryHistorical observations only; the series is not a scenario or a future path. 2015–2026. Read annual data.70,87966,7462015: 70,879 / 70,8792016: 70,228 / 70,2282017: 69,001 / 69,0012018: 68,769 / 68,7692019: 68,674 / 68,6742020: 68,359 / 68,3592021: 67,964 / 67,9642022: 67,360 / 67,3602023: 68,436 / 68,4362024: 68,106 / 68,1062025: 67,421 / 67,4212026: 66,746 / 66,74620152018202120242026

CSP IRS031 · Liepāja

2023 and 2024 population stocks were recalculated using SoL-logit; foreign students were included in a later revision. Stock differences across rebasing are not migration observations.

Population at 1 January
YearPopulation at 1 January
201570,879
201670,228
201769,001
201868,769
201968,674
202068,359
202167,964
202267,360
202368,436
202468,106
202567,421
202666,746
Annual total net migration · 2015–2025Annual total net migrationHistorical observations only; the series is not a scenario or a future path. 2015–2025. Read annual data.225-9982015: -529 / -5292016: -998 / -9982017: -17 / -172018: 219 / 2192019: -165 / -1652020: -35 / -352021: -71 / -712022: 225 / 2252023: 88 / 882024: -163 / -1632025: -235 / -23520152018202120242025

CSP IRS031 · Liepāja

Method changes and exceptional displacement limit comparability. 2022 migration was not recalculated alongside 2023/2024 stocks. These are CSP-published total net migration observations, not stock differences.

The 2022 stock reconciliation residual is not migration.

Annual total net migration
YearAnnual total net migration
2015-529
2016-998
2017-17
2018219
2019-165
2020-35
2021-71
2022225
202388
2024-163
2025-235
New dwellings commissioned · 2021–2025New dwellings commissionedHistorical observations only; the series is not a scenario or a future path. 2021–2025. Read annual data.3492021: 10 / 102022: 20 / 202023: 9 / 92024: 34 / 342025: 20 / 20202120242025

CSP BUE021 · Liepāja

Only the 2021–2025 BUE021 series is selected. Commissioning is not comprehensive net stock change. The older BUE020 segment is not pooled; collection has used BIS only since 2020.

New dwellings commissioned
YearNew dwellings commissioned
202110
202220
20239
202434
202520

Publication and sources

All values on this page come from the authorized publication PUB-LIEPAJA-SCENARIO-2026-2034-V1 and are checked against its published checksum before they are shown. Full publication record

EvidenceAssumptionsHow it worksPublication